One skillet. For generations.

3833 Foundry — Living Business Plan

Owner: 3833 Foundry (accountable to Aristotle). Last opened: 2026-09-18 PT (foreground offline prep: one-pager, packaging vendors, unit-econ skeleton; session parked to Tue Sep 22).

Vision (locked)

• Product: One size only. Entirely cast iron — no plastic, aluminum, or wood in the cookware.
• Design: Timeless; generational / nostalgia quality without kitsch.
• Promise: Lifetime warranty.
• Positioning: Premium gift — housewarming, wedding showers, baby showers, registry.
• Experience: Custom foundry + custom packaging / unboxing.
• Ops: Automated growth loop — ads → order → foundry → pack house → customer — with minimal humans.
• Brand candidates: 3833 Foundry, Harris Skillets (Aaron open-minded). Working default until decision: 3833 Foundry.
• Cadence: Strategy sessions with Aaron Tue/Fri ~10am PT; progress reported to Aristotle before each.

Product (open)

Brand

Full compare: session-prep-packaging-brand.md.

Unit economics (skeleton — no invented quotes)

Target retail / gift price band: TBD after competitive scan in research.

Supply & fulfillment architecture (target)

Ad / creative → Storefront / checkout → Order system
        → Foundry (make / hold) → Pack house (unbox kit) → Ship → Customer

Principles: minimal human touches; custom packaging as the emotional beat; foundry must be in the USA (decided 2026-10-13); Mexico quotes are a cost benchmark only.

Junior lanes (later — Aristotle spins up)

1. Research / supply chain
2. Marketing creative
3. Marketing execution
4. Finance / planning

Near-term workstream

1. ~~Draft living plan bones~~ (this file)
2. ~~Research v1~~ → research-v1.md
3. ~~Confirm size~~ — 10.5" locked
4. RFQs held for Tue Sep 22 10:00 AM PT session — offline packet drafted (rfq-packet/); send only after green-light
5. ~~Tighten packaging concepts + brand shortlist~~ → session-prep-packaging-brand.md
6. Run Tue Sep 22 10:00 AM PT session (brand, packaging direction, RFQ green-light from rfq-packet/, US vs MX, MSRP band)
7. Foreground prep continues through Tue Sep 22 (Aaron deprioritizing until then): decision one-pager tue-sep-22-one-pager.md, Pattern Reveal vendor shortlist packaging-pattern-reveal-vendors.md, unit-econ skeleton unit-econ-skeleton.md; AMC/FA contact paths refreshed in RFQ drafts — still DO NOT SEND; no emails outbound

Packaging & brand (session prep summary)

Detail: session-prep-packaging-brand.md. Updated 2026-09-18 PT.

Packaging concepts (pick one primary in session)

Full kit unit cost: UNKNOWN (public box/insert analogs only in session prep — not skillet quotes).

Brand recommendation

• Working / recommended: 3833 Foundry (foundry authenticity + distinctive mark; Harris as founder attribution until session decides otherwise).
• Alternates parked: Ashlar Foundry, Ledger Iron, No. Eight Iron, Cast & Keep, Caldera Works.
• Session decisions: primary lock vs dual-track; meaning of “3833”; counsel TM search green-light; domain check after lean.

Session agenda (Tue/Fri ~10am PT) — draft

1. Confirm locks (incl. 10.5" rim).
2. Brand: 3833 Foundry vs Harris Skillets (+ alternates / counsel).
3. Packaging direction: Pattern Reveal / Iron Nest / Ledger Lift (+ oil tin BOM?).
4. RFQ green-light: Lodge OEM, AMC, FA.
5. US-only vs Mexico nearshore OK.
6. MSRP planning band (~$155–$220 peers vs ~$200–$250 stretch).
7. Next owners (packaging RFQ, finishing partner, Aristotle note).

Decision log

Open questions

• ~~Exact diameter~~ — 10.5" rim locked
• Depth / weight target / wall thickness?
• Pre-seasoned vs bare iron for gift moment?
• US-only foundry story vs Mexico nearshore OK?
• Price ladder: one SKU MSRP target?

3833 Foundry — Break-even Summary (ASSUMPTION-DRIVEN)

2026-10-13 PT · Model: break-even-model.xlsx · No supplier quotes yet. Every cost is a placeholder.

Base assumptions: $175 price; landed cost $40; packaging $12; shipping $22; 3% payment fees; 6% returns/warranty reserve; $8,000/mo fixed; DTC channel. Contribution before ads = $85.25/pan.

Base-case monthly profit (CAC $50): 200 pans −$950 · 300 → +$2,575 · 500 → +$9,625 · 1,000 → +$27,250 (15.6% margin).

Takeaways

1. CAC is the whole game. At $175 each extra $10 of CAC adds roughly 50 to 100+ pans/month to break-even, and above about $85 CAC the business never breaks even. Organic, registry and gift repeat buyers (CAC near $0) are what make it work.
2. Price matters more than cost cuts. Going from $175 to $200 adds about $23 of contribution per pan. At $60 CAC that drops break-even from 317 to 167. Peers sell at $155–$220.
3. Amazon is a discovery channel, not a profit channel. The 15% referral fee takes about $26 per pan, and FBA fees aren't modeled yet. At CAC of $60 or more it never breaks even.
4. A $155 price only works with CAC under about $60.
5. The 200–300 pans/month plan is viable only if CAC stays at or under about $50 and landed+packaging+ship come in at or under ~$74.

Replace the yellow cells with RFQ quotes when they arrive.

3833 Foundry Deep Dive #1: Foundry RFQs

Date: 2026-10-13 (America/Phoenix) · Status: Research and drafts only. Nothing has been sent and no one has been contacted. Rule: No quote, MOQ, price, tooling fee or lead time below comes from a supplier. Anything not publicly stated is UNKNOWN.

Sources: rfq-packet/, research-v1.md, top5-skillets-sentiment.md, used-market-skillets.md, break-even-summary.md, batch-mark-concept.pdf, plus web checks on 2026-10-13.

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UPDATE 2026-10-13: MADE IN USA REQUIRED (Aaron). The pan must be cast in the USA. AMC and FA (Mexico) stay on file only as a cost benchmark, not as production candidates. The US foundry search is in 01b-us-foundries.md, and send-ready US emails are in rfq-packet/outbox/. Aaron approved emailing foundries for quotes the same day.

1. Why this comes first

Every cost in the break-even model is a placeholder: $40 pan, $12 box, $22 shipping, $8k a month fixed. At $175 and $60 ad cost per customer, the model breaks even at about 317 pans a month. A $10 swing in the pan cost moves that a lot. Until a foundry quotes, price, spec, packaging and first-order size are all guesses.

2. Candidate foundries

A. Lodge OEM (South Pittsburg, TN, USA)

• Capabilities (public, lodgecastiron.com/pages/oem): two TN foundries, Disamatic vertical molding, 5 × 10-metric-ton Inductotherm melters, 4 autopours, 3D solidification modeling. Castings up to about 20" × 24" and ½–50 lb, minimum wall 0.150". Iron chemistry is controlled for cookware (pig iron, steel slitter, own returns). Tooling shops are US-based. Lodge invented in-foundry seasoning (2002) and seasons at scale.
• Contact path: OEM inquiry form at https://www.lodgecastiron.com/pages/oem · [email removed] · [phone removed]. The form is "for OEM iron casting inquiries only."
• Pros: the only US cookware foundry openly selling OEM casting. Cookware-grade iron, seasoning know-how, scale for Q4 peaks, and the strongest "Made in USA" claim. It already pours for a premium brand (FINEX, acquired 2019).
• Cons: Lodge doesn't publicly confirm machined smooth interiors as an OEM service (Lodge's own pans are as-cast, and FINEX does its finishing in Portland), so ask. MOQ is UNKNOWN and could be sized for industrial buyers. A small brand may get low priority.
• Lodge conflict risk: HIGH. Lodge is the volume leader (Amazon 4.6 from about 87k ratings) and owns a $200 premium brand (FINEX) that competes head-on. Risks: (1) Lodge sees our design, price and launch plan. (2) Lodge may decline, or quote high to protect FINEX. (3) Capacity priority goes to Lodge's own brands in Q4, our gifting peak. (4) Our "heirloom" story weakens if customers learn a $25-pan maker casts it. Mitigations: share only what an RFQ needs, ask about NDA and tooling ownership up front, and get written confirmation that the tooling is ours and can move to another foundry.

B. AMC Foundry / Artículos Metálicos de Cadereyta (Cadereyta Jiménez, NL, Mexico)

• Capabilities (public, amcfoundry.com.mx): gray and ductile iron, automated Sinto green-sand molding, ISO 9001:2015. Castings 2–70 lb, up to about 16" diameter. About 400 metric tons a month claimed. Already makes food-service equipment castings (Torrey named). Machining goes to outside partners. No in-house seasoning stated.
• Contact path: [email removed] (listed in AMC's own LinkedIn post, not on the website). The website has no sales mailto. Phone [phone removed] comes from directory listings, so confirm it's live first. ventas@ is from an aggregator and is secondary.
• Pros: green sand suits thin-wall pans. ISO quality system. Food-service experience. Nearshore freight to TX. Likely lower cost (UNKNOWN until quoted). No cookware brand of its own, so no competitor conflict.
• Cons: no evidence it has made consumer cookware. Machining and seasoning need partners, which means more vendors and a longer QC chain. Size flag: a 10.5" rim pan plus handle is about 16–18" long overall, which may exceed the 16" envelope. Ask directly. The "Made in USA" claim is lost.
• Lodge conflict risk: NONE known.

C. FA Foundry (Santa Catarina / Monterrey, NL, Mexico)

• Capabilities (public, fafoundry.com): gray and ductile iron. Emphasizes no-bake sand (rougher surface than green sand, so more machining). Patterns in-house, machining partner Kanoff, coating services. About 95% of output exported to North America. About 1,200 metric tons a month. States a 4–6 week lead time from PO for industrial work (not confirmed for a new cookware pattern).
• Contact path: Quote Request Form at https://fafoundry.com/contact/ and /request-a-quote/. Phones [phone removed], 81 8654 5913, 81 2439 2373. [email removed] comes only from LinkedIn and isn't verified on the site.
• Pros: largest capacity and export experience, about 143 miles from Laredo. In-house patterns plus a named machining partner gives a one-stop route to a machined blank.
• Cons: industrial focus, with no consumer cookware evidence. The no-bake process may make 4–4.5 lb thin walls and a fine finish harder (ask). Seasoning is outsourced. A $175 retail program is small next to their usual volumes.
• Lodge conflict risk: NONE known.

D. Other US / Mexico options checked

Bottom line: I could verify only three named foundries with public contact paths. A fourth "Field-class" US foundry is the gap worth closing.

3. What every RFQ must ask (now in the drafts)

Draft edits made (in place, still marked DRAFT — DO NOT SEND): - rfq-packet/rfq-lodge-oem.md, rfq-amc-foundry.md, rfq-fa-foundry.md: added a v2 header and an "Added specs" block with all of the asks above. The hold line now reads "until Aaron's explicit green-light." - rfq-packet/rfq-brief.md: the weight row changed from "~4.5–6 lb" to a 4.0–4.5 lb target, and a new §9 adds the full spec list. - Not yet added (Aaron's call): an NDA request and the tooling-portability wording for Lodge (see Decision 2).

4. Recommended send order

1. AMC Foundry first (email sales@ after Aaron okays the LinkedIn-sourced address). No conflict risk, green sand fits thin pans, and food-service experience. Its answer on the 16" envelope and the insert tells us early if Mexico works.
2. FA Foundry the same day or next (Quote Request Form). Gives a second Mexico quote for comparison, and a fast "out of scope" reply costs nothing.
3. Lodge OEM last, about 1 week later (OEM form). We go in with a sharper spec and benchmark numbers in hand, and we share the least about our plan with a competitor. If "Made in USA" is a must-have, send Lodge alongside the others, but with the NDA and tooling-ownership asks included.
4. In parallel (no outreach yet): use the AFS directory to find 1–2 Wisconsin or Pennsylvania cookware-capable foundries, and a US machining and seasoning shop for the Mexico route.

Expect the first answers 1–3 weeks after sending (my estimate, not data).

5. Decisions for Aaron

1. Green-light to send, and through which channels. Approve the v2 drafts, and okay using AMC's LinkedIn-sourced sales@ address and FA's web form.
2. Lodge: include it or not, and on what terms. My recommendation is to include it last, with an NDA and written tooling ownership, so we get a US benchmark. Or skip it to avoid the competitor risk.
3. Is "Made in USA" required? If yes, Mexico becomes a cost benchmark only, and finding an unnamed Wisconsin or Pennsylvania foundry becomes urgent. If no, AMC or FA plus a US finishing shop is likely the main route.

DRAFTS ONLY. No RFQ has been sent.

Deep Dive #1b: US Foundries (Made in USA required)

Date: 2026-10-13 PT · Decision (Aaron, 2026-10-13): the skillet must be MADE IN USA. Mexico quotes (AMC, FA) are only a cost benchmark. Status: research plus send-ready drafts. Nothing has been sent. Unknowns are marked UNKNOWN. Contacts come only from each company's own website unless noted.

Spec: 10.5" gray iron, thin wall, 4–4.5 lb, machined smooth flat cooking surface, pre-seasoned, cast base mark with a swappable batch-moving ship insert, 500–5,000/yr to start.

A. Who casts for the US premium brands

Verified (named in a public source)

Partial (location confirmed, name not public)

Not checked yet (no access from here): LinkedIn job posts, USPTO/patent assignee data, import/customs records, Reddit threads. The search index blocks or thinly covers these. A logged-in human search is the next step.

B. Candidates for 3833 Foundry

Rejected: castiron-kitchenware.com, "Cast Iron Cookware Official, Tennessee." It lists a 555 phone number, and its foundry story can't be verified. Treat it as unreliable.

C. Machining and seasoning (if the foundry doesn't do them)

• Field and Stargazer both use outside CNC shops (IN and OH, names UNKNOWN). Fredericksburg uses Heartland Enterprises (TX, an affiliated shop). Lancaster Cast Iron machines its own pans in Conestoga, PA.
• Options: (a) the foundry plus its local CNC partner, (b) a regional job shop with a turning fixture, (c) in-house finishing and seasoning, the way Smithey, Stargazer and American Skillet do it. Ask every foundry who it recommends.

D. Takeaways

1. US premium brands nearly all split the work: a foundry pours raw castings, then a CNC shop machines them and the brand finishes and seasons. Plan for a 2–3 vendor chain.
2. The brand owns the pattern (Stargazer says so outright), so demand it in writing.
3. Expect a lot of rejections (Smithey asked about 200 foundries) and months of trials (Butter Pat had a year of failures). Budget for pattern iteration.